Strategic deployment of cross-border energy infrastructure investment for SDG 7: evaluating China’s role in electricity access along the Belt and Road

Achieving Sustainable Development Goal 7 requires a strategic integration of cross-border infrastructure investment to bridge persistent energy gaps and uneven development along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This study moves beyond traditional financial analysis to evaluate the strategic impact of Chinese Outward Energy Investment (COEI) for expanding electricity access (EA). Using high-resolution satellite remote sensing data for EA indicators, we construct a panel dataset for 85 countries (2013–2020) and apply the Method of Moments Quantile Regression to analyze infrastructure efficacy across development stages. The findings offer three critical strategic insights: (1) COEI significantly enhances EA, with robust evidence across all quantiles. (2) There is a significant institutional threshold effect, where the strategic success of energy infrastructure in improving EA is contingent upon host-country governance reaching a baseline level of effectiveness. (3) Strategic alignment is most pronounced in nations characterized by high-renewable energy shares and advanced industrialization, particularly in Latin America and East Asia, whereas the impact remains constrained in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study enhances the understanding of heterogeneous energy development, providing a framework for differentiated BRI energy cooperation, and offers empirical evidence for transitioning from broad infrastructure funding toward projects for inclusive, resilient energy systems.