The growing complexity of life trajectories leading to permanent childlessness: evidence from Italian cohorts

Permanent childlessness has increased markedly among Italian cohorts born after the Second World War, yet it remains unclear whether the life-course trajectories leading to this outcome have become more complex over time and whether such changes differ by gender. Using retrospective data from the 2016 ISTAT Survey Families, Social Subjects, and Life Cycle, monthly employment and partnership sequences are reconstructed for 2,470 permanently childless individuals born between 1920 and 1971. Sequence analysis is applied to measure life-course complexity, identify distinct trajectory types, and examine domain-specific dimensions of complexity and their directionality. Results show that each successive cohort exhibits significantly higher complexity than the oldest one. This pattern holds for both men and women, suggesting that the growing fragmentation of life-course trajectories is a generational phenomenon rather than a gender-specific one. Five distinct clusters of trajectories are identified, whose cohort distribution varies substantially by gender. The overall increase in complexity reflects two concurrent processes: a compositional shift toward more fragmented trajectory types, and, importantly, a generalised rise in complexity within all trajectory types. Disaggregating complexity by domain and directionality, we identify both a “traditional complexity”, reflecting a structured and directional progression within a relatively ordered trajectory towards marriage, and a “modern” one, characterised conversely by discontinuous and reversible relational patterns. These two forms of complexity are moving in opposite directions across cohorts: the traditional is declining, while the modern is increasing. In conclusion, these findings suggest that the expansion of permanent childlessness is accompanied by a broader destandardisation of life courses.