Transit Timing Variation Amplitudes as an Exomoon Detection Budget

This paper computes a quantitative budget for one aspect of exomoon physics: the subject stated in the title, evaluated from stated assumptions with every number produced by the deposited calculation. Headline results are ttv_earthmoon_jupiter_1AU_s = 110.4; ttv_ganymede_s = 6.26; ttv_earth_moon_analogue_s = 156.0; ttv_30Rp_s = 220.8. A planet with a moon does not cross its star alone. Planet and moon orbit their common centre of mass, so at transit the planet is displaced along its orbit from where an unaccompanied planet would be, and the transit arrives early or late as the moon moves around. This transit timing variation is periodic at the moon's orbital period and its amplitude is a clean combination of the moon-to-planet The results are compared with published Solar System values and with the constraints attached to reported exomoon candidates where those apply, and the conditions under which the computed budget would change are stated explicitly. Computed from stated assumptions, not measured.