The Influence of Profitability, Interest Rates (BI Rate) and Institutional Ownership on Stock Returns at PT Akasha Wira Internasional Tbk

This study examines the relationships between profitability, the Bank Indonesia policy interest rate, institutional ownership, and stock returns at PT Akasha Wira International Tbk over the 2013–2024 period. A quantitative approach was employed using secondary data obtained from the company’s annual reports and Bank Indonesia publications. The dataset comprises 12 annual observations. Profitability was measured using return on assets (ROA), while institutional ownership was measured by the proportion of shares held by institutional investors. The interest-rate variable was based on Bank Indonesia’s published policy-rate series, taking into account changes in the official benchmark terminology during the observation period. Multiple linear regression and hypothesis testing were conducted using SPSS version 23. The results indicate that profitability is positively and significantly associated with stock returns (t = 4.476, p = 0.002), whereas the policy interest rate is negatively and significantly associated with stock returns (t = −2.830, p = 0.022). Institutional ownership does not exhibit a statistically significant partial association with stock returns (t = 1.803, p = 0.109). Simultaneously, the three independent variables are statistically significant in the regression model (F = 10.610, p = 0.004). The model yields an R-squared of 0.799, indicating that the predictors jointly account for 79.9% of the in-sample variation in stock returns, while the adjusted R-squared is 0.724 after accounting for the number of predictors and observations. Given the limited sample and single-company setting, these findings should be interpreted cautiously. This study provides case-specific evidence concerning the relationships between firm-level profitability, monetary policy, ownership structure, and stock returns