Self-Efficacy, Goal Orientation, and Experience in the Hurricane Game: A Replication and Extension of the Discontinuous Model (Preregistration)

Preregistration (AsPredicted format) for three studies that re-analyze existing Hurricane Game data (in-person and online undergraduate samples). Study 1 (confirmatory) replicates Vancouver, More, and Yoder's (2008) discontinuous model of self-efficacy and resource allocation, testing within-person effects of board size and rated self-efficacy on engagement and seconds allocated, and examines trait goal orientation (learning, prove-performance, avoid-performance) and task experience as moderators via non-directional research questions. Study 2 (confirmatory, separate paper) tests round-to-round dynamics, including reactions to success and failure and Goal Orientation x Experience x Board Size interactions. Study 3 contains exploratory analyses (disengagement, decision-maker profiles, challenge-zone strategies, and other traits). The document specifies variables, exclusion rules, multilevel model specifications (including the three- vs. two-level model comparison and phase vs. minutes-of-play experience coding), inference criteria, and secondary analyses. The data were collected before registration; data access prior to registration is described in Shared Section A of the document.