Modelling future dental workforce need for adults with special care needs within the UK

Aims Special care dentistry (SCD) in the United Kingdom (UK) provides care for a range of adults with complex needs, including physically and mentally disabled people, older adults with dementia, adults with medical, emotional, sensory, mental or social impairment, or a combination of these factors, who require care in a range of settings. The aim of this research was to establish a needs-based workforce planning model and tool that focuses on assessing SCD's workforce capacity and capability to deliver tailored dental services for the UK's disabled populace. Methods A predictive analytics tool using Python and HTML was developed to integrate multiple large national datasets to identify key variables for long-term workforce planning and model future SCD demand through 2050. There are currently 13 million disabled adults, 5.9 million of whom are ‘disabled; limited a lot'. National and regional population demand projections for SCD were calculated until 2050 using data mainly from the Office for National Statistics and the 2021–2022 Family Resources Survey. National data on the specialty were obtained from registration and survey data. National and regional resource supply projections for SCD were calculated until at least 2040 recursively from 2018 taking into consideration multiple factors. Results A detailed analysis highlighted several key findings. Under the present scenario, supply aligns with demand only when 5–8% of the ‘disabled; limited a lot' category require complex dental care, suggesting that only a small proportion of needs is currently met by specialists. Planning for the future, for the baseline scenario, where 50% of the ‘disabled; limited a lot' population is considered to have complex needs, even adding 150 specialty trainees per year will not meet projected need until 2040 due to the length of training. If the other half of the ‘disabled; limited a lot' population is assumed to have moderate needs, then upskilling and adding 0.2% of the primary care dentists' pool, or about 80 primary care dentists to the dentists with extended skills (DES) pool per year, would allow this level of moderate need to be met as early as 2034. Strategic workforce redirections, such as even transitioning just 0.1% or 40 primary care dentists into the DES pool per year, could begin to significantly alter the supply-demand dynamics, together with a modest increase in specialty training numbers. Conclusions This study highlights the immense and growing need for SCD and the upskilling of frontline practitioners in caring for adults with additional needs. In essence, while the challenge before us is monumental, it is not insurmountable. Strategic planning, focused training initiatives, and nimble workforce reallocation are pivotal to ensuring that the UK's vulnerable populations receive the specialised dental care they deserve.