A Multidimensional Dynamic Simulation Method for Sequential Renewal Decision-Making in Historic Courtyard Compounds

Sequential renewal of historic courtyard compounds requires coordinated decisions on heritage character conservation, liveability enhancement, and long-term operation and maintenance, while interventions made at one stage can alter subsequent renewal conditions and scheme selection. To address this issue, this paper proposes a multidimensional dynamic simulation method based on state evolution. The method structures renewal into three successive stages and develops a multi-objective dynamic simulation model integrating cultural continuity, structural performance, liveability, and smartness level within a unified evaluation system. Stage-wise state transfer and a state-change penalty capture the continuing effects of earlier interventions, enabling sequential evaluation and scheme selection across stages. The method is applied to a typical courtyard compound in the Fayuan Temple Historic and Cultural District, Beijing, China, where alternative schemes are simulated and comprehensively assessed. The results show that stage-specific scheme selection reflects distinct objective trade-offs and that scheme benefits depend on both current-stage performance and the building state inherited from earlier interventions. Parameter sensitivity analysis indicates that the proposed method exhibits good robustness. The proposed method represents path dependence and interstage relationships and provides practical support for scheme comparison, interstage coordination, and sequential decision-making in the renewal and long-term management of historic courtyard buildings.