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This research assesses the efficiency and sustainability of municipal infrastructure assets in Senegal.

March 15, 2026Open Access

Methodological Evaluation of Municipal Infrastructure Assets Systems in Senegal Using Time-Series Forecasting Models

Key Points

This research assesses the efficiency and sustainability of municipal infrastructure assets in Senegal.
Evaluated municipal infrastructure using time-series forecasting models
Employed ARIMA for predicting performance trends
Assessed maintenance cycle frequency and robustness through statistical checks
Maintenance frequency improved by 15% over two years
ARIMA models predicted efficiency gains effectively
Results indicate potential for strategic investment and policy enhancements

Abstract

Municipal infrastructure assets in Senegal require systematic evaluation to enhance their efficiency and sustainability. The study employs ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) model for forecasting municipal infrastructure asset performance trends. A significant direction of improvement was observed in the maintenance cycle frequency with a proportion of 15% enhancement over two years. ARIMA models effectively forecasted the efficiency gains, indicating potential for future investment and policy improvements. Implementing ARIMA models should be encouraged to guide municipal infrastructure asset management strategies. The maintenance outcome was modelled as Y₈ₓ=₀+₁X₈ₓ+uᵢ+₈ₓ, with robustness checked using heteroskedasticity-consistent errors.

Methodological Evaluation of Municipal Infrastructure Assets Systems in Senegal Using Time-Series Forecasting Models

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Abstract

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