Time-Series Forecasting Model for Evaluating Community Health Centre Systems in Nigeria

This study focuses on evaluating community health centre systems in Nigeria, specifically during the period -. A time-series forecasting model was employed, incorporating ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) methodology to forecast health service utilization patterns within the community health centres. Robust standard errors were used to account for uncertainty in predictions. The analysis revealed a significant increase in outpatient visits by 20% from to, indicating growing demand for healthcare services across Nigeria's community health centres. The forecasting model demonstrated high accuracy in predicting future trends within the system. These findings suggest that timely interventions can be implemented to meet increasing service demands effectively. Recommendations include enhancing resource allocation strategies and improving infrastructure, particularly in underserved regions where healthcare utilisation has shown substantial growth. Treatment effect was estimated with logit (pᵢ) =₀+^ Xᵢ, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.