What question did this study set out to answer?

This research aims to directly test the correlation between residual Delta and chi_p * M_tot^2 in a specific high-delta sub-population.

June 8, 2026Open Access

Paper CCLXVI: First Direct Test of CCXLV-FP1 on the CCLXIV High-|Delta| Sub-Population with Per-Event Precessing-Spin Posteriors — Univariate rho (Delta, chiₚ * M²) = +0. 04 on N = 10 (Null, Selection-Limited) ; Multivariate Decomposition Recovers Positive chiₚ * M² Coefficient After Controlling for chiₑff

Key Points

This research aims to directly test the correlation between residual Delta and chi_p * M_tot^2 in a specific high-delta sub-population.
Analyzed a select sample of 10 per-event combined data releases from gravitational wave candidate events and extracted chi_p from precessing-spin posteriors.
Applied univariate and multivariate decomposition methods to investigate relationships among variables.
Performed bootstrap resampling to evaluate the correlation coefficients.
Univariate Pearson correlation coefficient rho(Delta, chi_p * M^2) was +0.0439 with a 95% CI crossing zero and the +0.30 threshold.
Multivariate decomposition yielded a chi_eff contribution coefficient of +0.4119, matching previous population slopes.
The analysis confirmed that CCXLV-FP1 is not falsified by the results, but acknowledged limitations due to the small sample size.

Abstract

Paper CCXLV (Throat-Threaded Magnetic Birefringence) issued forward prediction FP1: in hierarchical 2G+1G merger candidates the residual Delta = aᵣem, measured - aᵣem, CCLVI (eta) should additionally correlate with chiₚ * Mₜot² at rhoPearson >= +0. 30 with significance > 2. 5 sigma on the O5 catalogue. CCLXIV pre-registered the top-10 |Delta| sub-population of its N = 146 GWTC-4. 1 + GWTC-5. 0 join as the natural target. We execute this test for the first time by selectively downloading 10 per-event combined PE data-release HDF5 files (Zenodo 17014085 v1 and 20348005 v9, 2. 16 GB total) and extracting chiₚ from LVK headline precessing-spin posteriors (C00: Mixed where present, else NRSur7dq4 / SEOBNRv5PHM). Univariate Pearson rho (Delta, chiₚ * M²) = +0. 0439 on N = 10, with 95% bootstrap CI -0. 7861, +0. 5208 (5000 resamples) crossing both zero and the CCXLV-FP1 +0. 30 threshold. The selected sub-population has Delta span 0. 081 (compressed by the |Delta|-selection) but chiₚ * M² span 100x; the within-sample correlation rho (Delta, chiₑff) = +0. 885 remains strong, demonstrating that chiₑff drives the residual within the selected sample while the additional chiₚ * M² term sits below the noise floor at N = 10. Multivariate decomposition Delta = a + b * chiₑff + c * chiₚ * M² yields b = +0. 4119 (matching the CCLXIV population OLS slope +0. 3716 to within 11%), c = +4. 74e-7 (sign matches CCXLV-FP1; magnitude is a plausible sub-dominant contribution), and R² = 0. 83. CCXLV-FP1 is NOT falsified by this test. The methodology is established. Three predictions: CCLXVI-P1 pre-registers the full-population partial correlation rhoₚartial (Delta, chiₚ * M² | chiₑff) > +0. 20 at > 2 sigma after extracting chiₚ for the remaining 136 events (~28 GB additional download) ; CCLXVI-P2 chiₚ median distribution should peak near 0. 3-0. 4 reflecting prior-dominated regime at moderate SNR; CCLXVI-P3 multivariate chiₑff coefficient must remain within 20% of +0. 372 across data extractions. Honest scope: N = 10 too small for definitive conclusion; CCXLV-FP1 framed for O5 catalogue (~SNR 30) while we test on O4a/O4b (~SNR 12) ; selection geometry compresses Delta dynamic range. Framework count: 267 numbered papers. Part of the One-Octonion Brane-Bulk Framework series. Anchor DOI: 10. 5281/zenodo. 19120873. Community: one-octonion-brane-bulk. Author: Bharathi Dasan Jagadeesan, M. D. , University of Minnesota. ORCID: 0000-0002-1143-941X.

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