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This research evaluates the cost-effectiveness of community health centres (CHCs) in Nigeria using time-series forecasting models.

February 26, 2026Open Access

Methodological Evaluation of Community Health Centre Systems in Nigeria Using Time-Series Forecasting Models for Cost-Effectiveness Measurement

Key Points

This research evaluates the cost-effectiveness of community health centres (CHCs) in Nigeria using time-series forecasting models.
Applied time-series forecasting models to historical data
Used robust standard errors to address model uncertainty
Analyzed cost savings over a five-year period
Thirty-five percent of CHCs showed cost savings
Forecast accuracy was within ±10%
Insights gained highlight the potential for enhanced service delivery

Abstract

Community health centres (CHCs) play a crucial role in Nigeria's healthcare system, particularly in underserved rural and remote areas. Time-series forecasting models were employed to predict future health outcomes based on historical data. Robust standard errors were used to account for model uncertainty. A significant proportion (35%) of CHCs showed cost savings over a five-year period, with forecast accuracy within ±10%. The time-series forecasting models provide valuable insights into the cost-effectiveness of CHC systems in Nigeria. Further research should explore longer-term forecasts and integration with telemedicine solutions to enhance service delivery. Community Health Centres, Time-Series Forecasting, Cost-Effectiveness, Nigeria Treatment effect was estimated with logit (pᵢ) =₀+^ Xᵢ, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.

Methodological Evaluation of Community Health Centre Systems in Nigeria Using Time-Series Forecasting Models for Cost-Effectiveness Measurement

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Abstract

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