Methodological Evaluation of Community Health Centre Systems in Nigeria Using Time-Series Forecasting Models for Cost-Effectiveness Measurement

Community health centres (CHCs) play a crucial role in Nigeria's healthcare system, particularly in underserved rural and remote areas. Time-series forecasting models were employed to predict future health outcomes based on historical data. Robust standard errors were used to account for model uncertainty. A significant proportion (35%) of CHCs showed cost savings over a five-year period, with forecast accuracy within ±10%. The time-series forecasting models provide valuable insights into the cost-effectiveness of CHC systems in Nigeria. Further research should explore longer-term forecasts and integration with telemedicine solutions to enhance service delivery. Community Health Centres, Time-Series Forecasting, Cost-Effectiveness, Nigeria Treatment effect was estimated with logit(pᵢ)=β₀+β^ Xᵢ, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.