Time-Series Forecasting Model for Evaluating Cost-Effectiveness of Community Health Centre Systems in South Africa: A Methodological Study

Community health centres (CHCs) play a crucial role in South Africa's healthcare system by providing primary care services to underserved populations. However, their cost-effectiveness remains an area of interest for policymakers and stakeholders. A time-series forecasting model was employed to analyse historical data from multiple CHCs across South Africa. The model accounts for seasonal variations and trends in healthcare utilization patterns. The analysis revealed a significant positive correlation between the number of consultations per month and economic growth indicators, suggesting that improved service delivery could enhance economic outcomes. This study provides robust evidence on how time-series forecasting can be used to assess cost-effectiveness within CHC systems in South Africa. The findings underscore the potential for targeted interventions to optimise resource utilization. Policymakers should consider implementing a comprehensive monitoring system using similar forecasting models to evaluate ongoing service improvements and financial sustainability of CHCs. Treatment effect was estimated with logit(pᵢ)=β₀+β^ Xᵢ, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.