What question did this study set out to answer?

To evaluate the DELPHI method as a structured technique for deriving reliable consensus from a panel of experts.

April 1, 1963Management Science6,097 citations

An Experimental Application of the DELPHI Method to the Use of Experts

NDNorman C. DalkeyRAND Corporation OHOlaf HelmerUniversity of Southern California

Key Points

To evaluate the DELPHI method as a structured technique for deriving reliable consensus from a panel of experts.
Conducted an experimental evaluation of the DELPHI procedure with subject-matter experts.
Administered sequential, in-depth questionnaires interspersed with controlled summary feedback of group opinions.
Demonstrated that controlled feedback across successive survey rounds promotes convergence of expert judgments.
Established a systematic framework for eliciting group consensus while mitigating direct interpersonal bias.

Abstract

This paper gives an account of an experiment in the use of the so-called DELPHI method, which was devised in order to obtain the most reliable opinion consensus of a group of experts by subjecting them to a series of questionnaires in depth interspersed with controlled opinion feedback.

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