Carbon Decoupling of the Mining Industry in Mineral-Rich Regions Based on Driving Factors and Multi-Scenario Simulations: A Case Study of Guangxi, China

The mining industry (MI) in mineral-rich regions is pivotal for economic growth but is challenged by significant pollution and emissions. This study examines Guangxi, a representative region in China, in light of the country’s “Dual Carbon” goals. We quantified carbon emissions from the MI from 2005 to 2021, employing the generalized Divisia index method (GDIM) to analyze the factors driving these emissions. Additionally, a system dynamics (SD) model was developed, integrating economic, demographic, energy, environmental, and policy variables to assess decarbonization strategies and the potential for carbon decoupling. The key findings include the following: (1) Carbon accounting analysis reveals a rising emission trend in Guangxi’s MI, predominantly driven by electricity consumption, with the non-ferrous metal mining sector contributing the largest share of total emissions. (2) The primary drivers of carbon emissions were identified as economic scale, population intensity, and energy intensity, with periodic fluctuations in sector-specific drivers necessitating coordinated policy adjustments. (3) Scenario analysis showed that the Emission Reduction Scenario (ERS) is the only approach that achieves a carbon peak before 2030, indicating that it is the most effective decarbonization pathway. (4) Between 2022 and 2035, carbon decoupling from total output value is projected to improve under both the Energy-Saving Scenario (ESS) and ERS, achieving strong decoupling, while the resource extraction shows limited decoupling effects often displaying an expansionary connection. This study aims to enhance the understanding and promote the advancement of green and low-carbon development within the MI in mineral-rich regions.