Management of Changes in Operational Processes: Theory of Constraints and Probability Theory as Key Tools

In conditions of increasing turbulence in the external environment and growing uncertainty, the issue of effective management of organizational changes in operational processes becomes especially relevant. For medium-sized enterprises, which often face limited resources, insufficient structural flexibility, and heightened levels of risk, there is a growing need for adaptive management approaches that consider both internal constraints and probabilistic external factors. In this context, a hybrid TOCDynamic model is proposed, which combines the Theory of Constraints (TOC), probability theory, and digital technologies (Big Data, IoT, AI) to create a dynamic change management system. The Theory of Constraints allows for the identification and elimination of bottlenecks that hinder the overall efficiency of the system, while the probabilistic approach supports informed decision-making under conditions of uncertainty and external environmental changes. The use of digital tools, in turn, provides the capability for real-time monitoring, forecasting, and analysis of changes. The proposed model considers the specifics of medium-sized enterprises and is based on a critical analysis of the limitations of traditional management approaches, as well as empirical observations and case studies. Its application enables increased adaptability of business processes, more efficient resource utilization, and strengthened enterprise resilience to external impacts. Moreover, it facilitates a shift from reactive to proactive change management, reducing the time lag between the emergence of changes and the response to them. The development of a culture of continuous improvement and the implementation of datadriven decisions enhances the organization's innovation potential and ensure sustainable operation in the digital age. This integrated approach not only improves operational efficiency but also fosters a competitive advantage in rapidly evolving markets. The model can be used as a conceptual foundation for forming an innovative strategy for sustainable enterprise development amid digital transformation and a dynamic environment.