Predicting Range Shifts in the Distribution of Arctic/Boreal Plant Species Under Climate Change Scenarios

Climate warming is anticipated to significantly alter the distribution and composition of plant species in the Arctic, thereby cascading through food webs and affecting both associated fauna and entire ecosystems. To elucidate the trend in plant distribution in response to climate change, we employed the MaxEnt model to project the future ranges of 25 representative Arctic and Circumpolar plant species (including grasses and shrubs). Species distribution data, in conjunction with bioclimatic variables derived from climate projections of three selected General Circulation Models (GCMs), ESM2, IPSL, and MPIE, were utilized to fit the MaxEnt models. Subsequently, we predicted the potential distributions of these species under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)—SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585—across a timeline spanning 2010, 2050, 2100, 2200, 2250, and 2300 AD. Range shift indices were applied to quantify changes in plant distribution and range sizes. Our results show that the ranges of nearly all species are projected to diminish progressively over time, with a more pronounced rate of reduction under higher emission scenarios. The species are generally expected to shift northward, with the distances of these shifts positively correlated with both the time intervals from the current state and the intensity of thermal forcing associated with the SSPs. Arctic species (A_Spps) are anticipated to face higher extinction risks compared to Boreal–Arctic species (B_Spps). Additional indices, such as range gain, loss, and overlap, consistently corroborate these patterns. Notably, the peak range shift speeds differ markedly between SSP245 and SSP585, with the latter extending beyond 2100 AD. In conclusion, under all SSPs, A_Spps are generally expected to experience more significant range shifts than B_Spps. In the SSP585 scenario all species are projected to face substantial range reductions, with Arctic species being more severely affected and consequently facing the highest extinction risks. These findings provide valuable insights for developing conservation recommendations for polar plant species and have significant ecological and socioeconomic implications.