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November 20, 2025Journal of BiogeographyOpen Access

Different Dispersal Rates and Declining Climate Suitability Shape Future Vegetation Compositions Across the Arctic

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Authors

RSRonja SchwenklerUHUlrike HerzschuhLFLuca Zsofia Farkas

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Overview

Model predicts habitat change and species richness decline in Arctic vegetation by 2100, highlighting dispersal limitations.

Key Points

  • The aim is to understand the influence of dispersal abilities on future Arctic plant distributions.
  • Developed climate-driven species distribution models (SDM) for predictions.
  • Used occurrence data from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF).
  • Incorporated temperature and bioclimatic variables from CHELSA data set.
  • Assigned species-specific dispersal rates using a trait-based approach.
  • Predicted plant species to occupy on average only 12.3% of their emerging climate niches by 2100.
  • Half of the studied species may not colonise new habitats due to limited dispersal distances.
  • Migration to higher altitudes is more significant than northward shifts for dispersal-limited species.
  • Decolonisation due to decreasing climate suitability impacts species composition more than dispersal limitations.

Cite This Study

Schwenkler et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6924f084c0ce034ddc3504dbhttps://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.70079
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