Seasonal energy burden and climate intervention co-benefits: A case study in Arizona

Cooling infrastructure, technologies, and nature-based interventions are critical components in mitigating heat-related risks, energy insecurity, and household carbon footprints. This study investigated whether various climate adaptation and mitigation interventions affect energy burden and how seasonality (i.e., changes across seasons) affects energy insecurity reductions. We focused on the following interventions within Arizona’s Salt River Project service area: air-conditioning (AC) adoption, rooftop photovoltaic (PV) with batteries, weatherization, and increased tree coverage. We developed a multi-model analysis using daily smart meter data from 2015–2018, weather data, housing and household survey data, and open-source models to simulate changes in household energy use. Our model produces estimates of energy consumption, cost, burden, and avoided emissions for both census tracts and building types. Our novel approach combines climate interventions, CO₂ mitigation, and energy insecurity reductions, which have typically been isolated. We found that without intervention, energy burden for an average household ranges from 2% annually to 5.7% in fall and 10.7% in summer. Considering only annual energy burden is inadequate to represent seasonal variation. Across all scenarios, average savings were approximately $90, ranging from $0 to $247. Scenarios in which all energy-inefficient households adopted a rooftop PV system with a battery or were weatherized and adopted an efficient AC showed the largest savings. These scenarios demonstrated the most significant reductions: 1 to 3 metric tons of CO₂ equivalent per household and 3 to 4 percentage points in burden reductions. When evaluating energy burden reduction per avoided metric ton, we found that achieving household emission reduction and energy equity goals necessitated combining interventions. This study revealed how households, cities, and utilities can collaborate to address rising temperatures and improve equity while reducing residential emissions. Our integrated model is generalizable to any utility or climate zone and can be used in conjunction with more traditional tools.