Identifying Critical Fire Risk Transmission Paths in Subway Stations: A PSR–DEMATEL–ISM Approach

To enhance the understanding and management of fire risks in subway stations, this study aims to identify critical fire risk transmission paths using an integrated PSR–DEMATEL–ISM approach. A comprehensive evaluation framework is first constructed based on the Pressure–State–Response (PSR) model, systematically categorizing 22 influencing factors into three dimensions: pressure, state, and response. The Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method is then employed to analyze the causal relationships and centrality among these factors, distinguishing between cause and effect groups. Subsequently, Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) is applied to organize the factors into a multi-level hierarchical structure, enabling the identification of risk propagation pathways. The analysis reveals five high-centrality and high-causality factors: fire safety education and training, completeness of fire management rules and regulations, fire smoke detection and firefighting capability, operational status of monitoring equipment, and effectiveness of emergency response plans. Based on these key drivers, six major transmission paths are derived, reflecting the internal logic of fire risk evolution in subway environments. Among them, chains originating from Fire Safety Education and Training (S6), Architectural Fire Protection Design (S7), and Completeness of Fire Management Rules and Regulations (S16) exhibit the most significant influence on system-wide safety performance. This study provides theoretical support and practical guidance for proactive fire prevention and emergency planning in urban rail transit systems, offering a structured and data-driven approach to identifying vulnerabilities and improving system resilience.