Exporting Through Complexity: The Indirect Influence of Higher Education on Export Intensity

This study examines the socioeconomic determinants of trade performance, with a particular focus on tertiary education, export structure, export intensity, and GDP. The research intention is to figure out whether a country's advantage in higher education translates into stronger export outcomes through a mediating mechanism, and to what extent this effect is observed. To address this question, this research employs mediation analysis using the causal steps regression approach, and the results are reviewed with robustness test using the bootstrap method. Research data come from public open databases. The empirical findings suggest that tertiary education serves as a significant secondary drive of exports. Notably, a substantial portion of this influence operates indirectly and primarily through enhancing the complexity of the export structure. These results imply that the diversity and specialization of university programs underpin the educational edge in export performance, highlighting the critical role of human capital composition in shaping a nation's comparative advantage in international trade.