Export Intensity and Tertiary Education: A Cross-National Analysis with Economic Complexity Index as a Moderator

This study examines the bidirectional relationship between export intensity and tertiary education enrollment across 109 countries from 1998 to 2023, with a focus on the moderating role of economic complexity. Using fixed-effects panel models, interaction terms, and system GMM estimation, the analysis reveals an asymmetric pattern: while both directions are statistically significant, the influence of education on exports is more robust and contingent on structural sophistication. The Economic Complexity Index (ECI) significantly strengthens the education-to-export link but has limited moderating effect in the reverse direction. The study highlights the importance of aligning human capital development with structural transformation to support inclusive, export-led growth. Context-specific strategies are recommended for countries at different levels of economic complexity. The robustness of findings is confirmed through alternative specifications and transformations. Overall, the study offers new insights into how trade and education co-evolve and underscores the role of productive capabilities in shaping development pathways amid shifting global dynamics.