The Impact of Climate Risk on China’s Energy Security

Energy security has emerged as a critical concern amid intensifying climate risks and surging energy demand driven by economic growth. This study examines the impact of climate risk on energy security by constructing a panel dataset covering 30 Chinese provinces from 2006 to 2022. Using the instrumental variable generalized method of moments (IV-GMM) model, we estimate the marginal impact of climate risk on energy security and further investigate its asymmetric, direct, and indirect relationships via panel quantile regression and mediation analysis. Our key findings are as follows: (1) Climate risk exerts a significant negative impact on energy security, indicating an inverse relationship. (2) The effect of climate risk is asymmetric, with a stronger adverse impact in regions with lower levels of energy security. (3) Climate risk undermines energy security by reducing energy accessibility, affordability, sustainability, and technological efficiency. (4) Energy transition and energy efficiency serve as critical mediators in the relationship between climate risk and energy security, offering insights into potential mitigation pathways. Unlike previous studies that primarily examine energy security in isolation or focus on single dimensions, this research integrates a multidimensional indicator system and advanced econometric techniques to uncover both direct and mediated pathways, thereby filling a key gap in understanding the climate–energy nexus at the provincial level in China. Based on these findings, we propose targeted policy recommendations to enhance energy security by improving climate resilience, accelerating the deployment of renewable energy, and optimizing energy infrastructure investments.