Predictors of Early College Success in the U.S.: An Initial Examination of Test-Optional Policies

For decades, the U.S. college admissions process has utilized standardized exams as critical indicators of college readiness. With the onset of the COVID pandemic, the majority of 4-year universities implemented the Test-Optional policy to improve college access and enrollment. The Test-Optional policy allows prospective high school students to apply to institutions that have implemented this policy without a SAT or ACT score. This study examined the use of the Test-Optional policy and its relationship with early college success. Forward multiple regression examined which variables of High School GPA, Students of Color, First-Generation Status, Test-Optional, Pell Eligible, and Pre-College Credits best predict undergraduate first-year GPA. The results generated a five-variable model that accounted for 31% of the variability in first-year college GPA. High School GPA was the strongest predictor, while Test-Optional was not entered into the model. Binary logistic regression examined predictors of first-year college completion. Our results revealed the model including High School GPA, which tripled the odds of first-year completion. Again, Test-Optional was not included in the model. Although Students of Color and Pell Eligibility utilized Test-Optional significantly more than their peers, Test-Optional was not a significant predictor of first-year College GPA or first-year completion.