Uncertainty in Chinese enterprises’ digital technology: indicator identification and influencing factors

Digital technology is a key driver of global economic growth, and its application effectiveness is significantly influenced by uncertainties encountered during its development process. Identifying the uncertainties associated with digital technology adoption and their underlying factors holds significant theoretical and practical value for optimising corporate development strategies. Based on this, this study employs text analysis, machine learning, and fixed-effects models to construct a digital technology uncertainty index and thoroughly examines its influencing factors. The study found that the degree of digital technology uncertainty among enterprises has been increasing yearly, rising from 2.4528 in 2007–5.2528 in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 114.1553% and an average annual growth rate of 4.5403%. Additionally, compared to other types or regions of enterprises, non-state-owned enterprises, the information transmission/software and information technology services sector, and enterprises in western regions exhibit higher levels of digital technology uncertainty. Factorial analysis revealed that increased agency costs and financing constraints exacerbate digital technology uncertainty for businesses. Conversely, an increase in the average age of management, an expansion in the shareholding ratio of institutional investors, and an enhancement in export intensity all reduce digital technology uncertainty for businesses.