A Comparative Study on the Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Oases in the Tarim River Basin and the Heihe River Basin During the Historical Period

Oases are the core carriers of societal development in arid regions, and their spatial patterns have changed significantly, driven by climate change and anthropogenic activities. This study integrates historical documents, archeological materials, maps, and remote sensing data. The changes in the temperature, precipitation, settlements, war frequency, and oasis area were identified by combining quantitative and qualitative methods, and the partial least squares path model (PLS-PM) was utilized to quantify the natural and human driving factors. The results show that the oasis development in the Tarim and Heihe River Basins exhibits distinct spatio-temporal variability and phased characteristics and is comprehensively shaped by both natural and anthropogenic drivers. The Tarim Basin’s natural oases demonstrate a “fluctuating recovery” pattern. The cultivated oases gradually expanded. The natural oases within the Heihe River Basin have persistently decreased, and cultivated oases show a “U”-shaped evolution pattern. This reflects the strong intervention of human reclamation in the cultivated oases. The introverted social ecosystem has endowed the Tarim River Basin with the ability to self-repair and achieve a periodic recovery. The Heihe River Basin serves as a strategic corridor for national external engagement, relying on regime stability. A regime collapse led to its lack of a stable recovery period. The PLS-PM reveals that the Tarim River Basin oasis evolution is predominantly driven by climate fluctuations. The path coefficient of natural factors for artificial oases is 0.63, and extreme drought leads to natural oasis contraction. The human influence dominates the Heihe River Basin, with a −0.93 path coefficient linking the cultivated oasis area to human factors. The frequency of wars (load 0.74) and changes in settlements (load −0.92) are the key factors. This study provides a powerful case for the analysis of the evolution and driving mechanism of future oases in drylands.