The impact of health shocks on poverty vulnerability: evidence from rural households in China

Background “Poverty due to illness” presents the core challenge for both the Healthy China Initiative and the consolidation of poverty alleviation achievements, concerning health equity and sustainable social development. Existing studies have predominantly assessed the impact of health shocks on poverty from a static perspective. However, they often overlook the dynamic nature of poverty, failing to account for the impact of health shocks on future poverty risks. Methods Based on the data of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) from 2012 to 2020, this paper measures the poverty vulnerability under the criteria of absolute poverty and relative poverty, and empirically analyzes the impact of health shocks on rural households’ poverty vulnerability. Results The results show that health shocks have a significant positive effect on household poverty vulnerability, and the effect is greater under absolute poverty criteria. Further analysis revealed that a higher level of education significantly mitigated the impact of health shocks on poverty vulnerability; Further analysis revealed that a higher level of education significantly mitigated the impact of health shocks on poverty vulnerability; compared to the eastern region, the exacerbating effect of health shocks on poverty vulnerability was more severe in the central and western regions, presenting a gradient difference of “eastern region < central region < western region.” In addition, we find that declines in agricultural production income and wage income are important channels through which health shocks affect poverty vulnerability. Conclusion This study provides the policy basis for the government to establish the “pre-warning” mechanism of poverty and take effective measures to prevent the large-scale return to poverty.