Heat, Energy Poverty, and Hidden Deprivation in Rural China

In the context of global climate change, understanding how extreme heat affects energy poverty is critical for both policy and household welfare. This study investigates the association between heat shocks and energy poverty among rural households in China, using data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) and NASA climate records. We find that heat shocks are positively and significantly associated with greater energy poverty, with northern households and those farther from provincial capitals being most vulnerable. Income heterogeneity is also important: low-income households exhibit weaker increases in energy expenditures under heat shocks, indicating that affordability constraints can mask their energy deprivation. This reveals the presence of hidden energy poverty, which conventional objective measures may underestimate. Moreover, the dynamic inter-wave cumulative estimates indicate persistent associations between heat shocks and household energy poverty, suggesting limited adaptive capacity among some rural households. Our results are robust across multiple heat-shock indicators. These findings provide household-level evidence on the pathways through which climate shocks shape energy poverty and underscore the need for targeted interventions to enhance adaptive capacity and protect vulnerable populations in rural China.