The impact of extreme heat on rural household development capability: evidence from the China Health and Nutrition Survey

Climate change severely threatens rural household welfare, but the resulting structural damage to household development capability is often poorly captured by traditional income indicators. Departing from these conventional approaches, this study investigates the impact of extreme heat on rural household development capability using longitudinal data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) spanning 1993–2015. Specifically, we constructed a dynamic household development capability using a conditional moment estimation approach and estimated the effects of extreme heat using a panel fractional response model. The results indicate that extreme heat significantly constrains rural household development capability, and these findings remain robust across a series of sensitivity analyses. Supportive pathway analyses further suggest that this relationship may be linked to the depletion of health capital and the increase in medical expenditures. In addition, our results reveal considerable heterogeneity across demographic and socioeconomic groups, potentially reflecting disparities in adaptive capacity to climate stress.