A Modified Neo-Malthusian Population Growth Model for Predicting Demographic Processes in Nigeria

This study develops a Modified Neo-Malthusian Population Growth Model tailored to Nigeria’s demographic realities. Utilizing both classical and novel modeling frameworks, including exponential, logistic, Gompertz, von Bertalanffy, and Richards models, four new allometry-parameter-based models are introduced to better account for nonlinear growth dynamics. Parameters were estimated using Marquardt’s Compromise Method and model performance assessed via R², RMSE, AIC, and BIC. Nigeria Population data as published on https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/nga/nigeria/population provided the basis for calibration and validation. Results indicate that Proposed Model 3 offers the most accurate predictions, while Proposed Model 1 and 2 demonstrated strong performance in Nigeria Population projections. This model suite provides enhanced tools for demographic forecasting and development planning in Nigeria.