Analysis reveals sharp increases in exports to the US due to frontloading shipments, highlighting tariff impacts.
In the first few months of 2025, exports to the United States from many economies rose sharply, driven by a frontloading of shipments ahead of expected tariff increases. This shift was particularly concentrated in March, when U.S. import volumes from several major trading partners spiked, likely in expectations of the pre-announced date of April 2 of new tariffs to come. The surge was especially pronounced for the euro area and Taiwan (left panel of Figure 1).2,3
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Soyres et al. (2025) studied this question.
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