Integrating Urban Factors as Predictors of Last-Mile Demand Patterns: A Spatial Analysis in Thessaloniki

While the explosive growth in e-commerce stresses urban logistics systems, city planners lack of fine-grained data in order to anticipate and manage the resulting freight flows. Using a three-stage analytical approach combining descriptive zonal statistics, hotspot analysis and different regression modeling from univariate to geographically weighted regression, this study integrates one year of parcel deliveries from a leading courier with open spatial layers of land-use zoning, census population, mobile-signal activity and household income to model last-mile demand across different land use types. A baseline linear regression shows that residential population alone accounts for roughly 30% of the variance in annual parcel volumes (2.5–3.0 deliveries per resident) while adding daytime workforce and income increases the prediction accuracy to 39%. In a similar approach where coefficients vary geographically with Geographically Weighted Regression to capture the local heterogeneity achieves a significant raise of the overall R2 to 0.54 and surpassing 0.70 in residential and institutional districts. Hot-spot analysis reveals a highly fragmented pattern where fewer than 5% of blocks generate more than 8.5% of all deliveries with no apparent correlation to the broaden land-use classes. Commercial and administrative areas exhibit the greatest intensity (1149 deliveries per ha) yet remain the hardest to explain (global R2 = 0.21) underscoring the importance of additional variables such as retail mix, street-network design and tourism flows. Through this approach, the calibrated models can be used to predict city-wide last-mile demand using only public inputs and offers a transferable, privacy-preserving template for evidence-based freight planning. By pinpointing the location and the land uses where demand concentrates, it supports targeted interventions such as micro-depots, locker allocation and dynamic curb-space management towards more sustainable and resilient urban-logistics networks.