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Predictability in the year-to-year variations of the northwest Pacific monsoon trough and their impacts on tropical cyclone genesis

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Observational analysis reveals that monsoon trough variations influence tropical cyclone development, indicating significant regional predictability.

Year-to-year variations in the northwest Pacific monsoon trough affect tropical cyclone genesis.
East-west migration mode related to SST anomalies during ENSO phases accounts for over 60% variance.
North-south displacement mode shows SST anomalies modulate less than 40% variance in tropical cyclone patterns.
Understanding monsoon trough variability is crucial for improving predictive models for tropical cyclone activity.

Li et al. (2025) studied this question.

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Observational analysis reveals that monsoon trough variations influence tropical cyclone development, indicating significant regional predictability.