March 5, 2024npj Climate and Atmospheric ScienceOpen Access

Influence of spatial and seasonal asymmetries on long-range tropical cyclone prediction in the western North Pacific

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Authors

JBJoseph BasconcilloPhilippine Medical Association IMIl‐Ju MoonJeju National University ATAdrian Gelo TianchonUniversity of the Philippines Diliman

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Implication

Predictive modeling demonstrates improved seasonal tropical cyclone genesis forecasting across the western North Pacific, highlighting the utility of domain-separated climate indices.

Key Points

Long-range prediction of tropical cyclones improves markedly by resolving spatial and seasonal asymmetries across distinct western north pacific domains.
A correlation of r = 0.80 (p < 0.01) demonstrates strong seasonal predictability for basin tc genesis frequency during the active June to November season.
Regression-based models employing multi-lead climate indices capture environmental asymmetries, supporting localized prediction for regional disaster risk reduction.

Cite This Study

Basconcillo et al. (2024) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/68e75a00b6db6435876d0ddc https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00604-6

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Implication

Predictive modeling demonstrates improved seasonal tropical cyclone genesis forecasting across the western North Pacific, highlighting the utility of domain-separated climate indices.

Influence of spatial and seasonal asymmetries on long-range tropical cyclone prediction in the western North Pacific

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

Influence of spatial and seasonal asymmetries on long-range tropical cyclone prediction in the western North Pacific

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

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