Formation of Regional Grain Exports

The article attempts to formalize the calculation of the size of regional grain exports. A generalization of approaches to the definition of the "export" category has been carried out. The role of the commodity balance formula in formalizing the calculation of the export size is determined. Approaches to determining the size of export potential are considered. The dependence of regional grain exports on the surplus created in the regional market, adjusted for a number of ratios, has been established. These ratios include: the implementation of the historical principle of export quotas, the formation of grain reserves, the ratio of allocated quotas to surplus, the ratio of grain reserves to available one-time storage capacities, the degree of surplus in the region, the ratio of consumption of grain products to the value of formed grain reserves, the measure of compliance of grain consumption of all types with their actual reserves. The performed analysis revealed a potentially high degree of influence of corrective ratios. A retrospective analysis of the reasons for the discrepancy between the surplus of grain products and actual exports was carried out.