Global Burden of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in ReproductiveAge Women: Systematic Analysis of 1990-2021 Trends and 2040 Projections Using Nordpred and BAPC Models

Background: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a metabolic disorder that significantly impacts women's reproductive health. Therefore, this study utilizes the latest Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data to comprehensively assess the burden of T2DM among women of reproductive age (WRA) worldwide from 1990 to 2021. Methods: Data on T2DM incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality among WRA were extracted from the GBD database for 1990–2021. Global, regional, and age-specific trends were analyzed using percentage changes and estimated annual percentage changes. The Spearman correlation test examined the relationship between the Social Development Index (SDI) and disease burden indicators. Future trends were projected using Bayesian Age-PeriodCohort and Nordpred models. Results: From 1990 to 2021, the global burden of T2DM among WRA rose substantially, with incidence, prevalence, DALYs, and deaths increasing by 201%, 251%, 181%, and 90%, respectively. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), prevalence rates (ASPR), and mortality rates (ASDR) also exhibited significant upward trends. Low-SDI regions experienced the highest growth in absolute numbers, while high-SDI regions saw the greatest increases in ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR. Agestratified analysis indicated a pronounced rise in burden with advancing age. Projections suggest a continued increase in the global T2DM burden among WRA by 2040. Conclusions: The global burden of T2DM among WRA has increased significantly from 1990 to 2021, with this trend expected to further worsen in the coming years. It is imperative to strengthen relevant management measures to address this severe health challenge.