Forecasting Toxic Hazard Levels for Ammonia Emissions in Chemical Production under Various Meteorological Conditions (Using ohe Example of Voronezhsyntezkauchuk JSC)

Aim. Improving the efficiency of forecasting the spread of chemically hazardous substances (using the example of ammonia emissions at a chemically hazardous enterprise of hazard class I, Voronezh) in various meteorological conditions and assessing the danger to the population by integrating the ALOHA toxic zone calculation program and the population database, taking into account its density Maps.ie. Methodology. ALOHA algorithms allow predicting the spread of toxicants in the air with high reliability, taking into account their physico-chemical properties, the type and scale of the accident, and the underlying surface. The graphical interpretation of the simulation results clearly shows the depth and area of the spread of a cloud of chemically hazardous substances for three levels of toxic hazard. When using databases Maps.ie It is possible to accurately estimate the number of people in need of assistance and emergency evacuation in the event of a man-made accident. Results. An assessment of potential toxic hazard zones in the event of a possible accident at a chemically hazardous facility of JSC Voronezhsintezkauchuk has been carried out. At the same time, various accident scenarios were considered – leakage and guillotine rupture of a 10-ton ammonia tank in winter and summer. Calculations have shown that unfavorable conditions for the development of an emergency situation are typical for the destruction of a tank on hot, dry days with a weak turbulent atmosphere. Under these conditions, the radius of the potential toxic hazard zone is 8,9 km, where ~660 thousand people live. Voronezh residents, of whom about 4 thousand people are in mortal danger at a distance of 1,9 km from the ammonia storage facility. The most unfavorable wind directions have been identified, in which the maximum number of people is at risk. Since it is impossible to test the algorithms used in the work on a real object, we simulated the spread of the cloud as a result of an already accomplished ammonia leak. The model and publicly available information about the accident showed good convergence of the results. Research implications. The obtained patterns of the spread of chemically hazardous substances in the air, taking into account the characteristics of the underlying surface, meteorological conditions, the nature, type and scale of the accident, as well as the use of algorithms to estimate the number of vulnerable populations, make it possible to expand the theory of geoecological monitoring of potentially chemically hazardous objects. The presented scheme of integration of ALOHA algorithms and the population database Maps.ie It can be used as a ready-made electronic guide for decision makers in the prevention and occurrence of emergency situations.