Spatiotemporal Ionospheric TEC Prediction with Deformable Convolution for Long-Term Spatial Dependencies

SA-ConvLSTM is a recently proposed spatiotemporal model for total electron content (TEC) prediction, which effectively catches long-term temporal evolution and global-scale spatial correlations in TEC. However, its reliance on standard convolution limits spatial feature extraction to fixed regular regions, reducing the flexibility for irregular TEC variations. To address this limitation, we enhance SA-ConvLSTM by incorporating deformable convolution, proposing SA-DConvLSTM. This achieves adaptive spatial feature extraction through learnable offsets in convolutional kernels. Building on this improvement, we design ED-SA-DConvLSTM, a TEC spatiotemporal prediction model based on an encoder–decoder architecture with SA-DConvLSTM as its fundamental block. Firstly, the effectiveness of the model improvement was verified through an ablation experiment. Subsequently, a comprehensive quantitative comparison was conducted between ED-SA-DConvLSTM and baseline models (C1PG, ConvLSTM, and ConvGRU) in the region of 12.5° S–87.5° N and 25° E–180° E. The experimental results showed that the ED-SA-DConvLSTM exhibited superior performance compared to C1PG, ConvGRU, and ConvLSTM, with prediction accuracy improvements of 10.27%, 7.65%, and 7.16% during high solar activity and 11.46%, 4.75%, and 4.06% during low solar activity, respectively. To further evaluate model performance under extreme conditions, we tested the ED-SA-DConvLSTM during four geomagnetic storms. The results showed that the proportion of its superiority over the baseline models exceeded 58%.