Data-driven simulation method for strategic decision-making in circular economy business design

The circular economy (CE) seeks to replace traditional linear models by focusing on resource reuse and circulation. However, developing effective CE business strategies is difficult due to complex user behaviors and product flows. Existing scenario analysis tools often rely on survey-based conjoint methods, raising concerns about discrepancies with real purchasing patterns. This study introduces a data-driven simulation approach that employs a consumer preference model and product circulation processes based on actual operational data. Applied to a second-hand PC rental business, our method more accurately reproduces market behavior and reveals that targeting certain customer segments can enhance profitability and resource utilization. These findings underscore the approach’s value as a practical tool for pre-evaluating strategies in CE businesses.