Longitudinal Trajectories of Adiposity Indicators and Cancer Risk Over 14 Years: Evidence from Repeated Health Check-Ups of 10 Times or More - China, 2010-2023.

Central obesity is a recognized risk factor for several types of cancers. However, most supporting evidence originates from Western populations and relies on single adiposity measurements, with limited longitudinal data available from China. Drawing on data from more than 25,000 Chinese adults who each underwent 10 or more health check-ups over 14 years, this study demonstrated that waist-related indicators - particularly Body Mass Index -adjusted waist circumference (WCadjBMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHRadjBMI) - and their inverted U-shaped trajectories are more strongly associated with cancer risk than BMI alone, especially in men and adults aged 50 years and above. Tracking changes in waist-related fat measures over time may help identify cancer risk earlier than BMI monitoring alone. Integrating central obesity measures into routine screening could improve targeted cancer prevention, particularly for the older and male populations, and advance the goals of Healthy China 2030.