Modelling Future Scenarios for End‐of‐Life Battery Management of Electric Vehicles in São Paulo

This study addresses the escalating challenge of managing end‐of‐life (EOL) electric vehicle (EV) batteries within a circular economy framework, focusing on the city of São Paulo. Using system dynamics modelling, the research projects a fleet of approximately 11 million light‐duty EVs in São Paulo by 2045, generating an annual influx of 1.34 million EOL batteries, thereby highlighting the critical need for robust management infrastructure. Three scenarios were evaluated: business‐as‐usual (BAU), projecting over 50% of EOL batteries landfilled by 2045; a recycling policy, demonstrating a potential 34% reduction in landfill disposal compared to BAU through increased recycling; and a second‐life policy. The latter, prioritizing investment in battery repurposing, estimates nearly 90% of EOL batteries could be diverted to second‐use applications by 2045, achieving significant landfill reduction while extending battery utility. The findings indicate that a strategy centred on second‐life applications provides the most sustainable and beneficial solution, maximizing resource efficiency and offering substantial environmental, economic and energy advantages in response to the rapid growth of the EV market in São Paulo, with implications for urban areas globally.