Assessing recycling potential of critical materials in European electric vehicle fleet

The rapid expansion of electric mobility in the European Union (EU) is driving a significant increase in end-of-life (EoL) lithium-ion battery (LiB) flows. This study develops a dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) framework to quantify the future recycling potential of critical materials from electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). A temporally explicit stock-flow model is constructed, integrating vehicle adoption projections, survival functions (including cross-border dynamics), and battery characteristics (chemistry shares and material intensities) to estimate in-use stocks and resulting material flows. EoL pathways include second-life allocation to stationary storage and recycling processes. Results indicate a sharp rise in recoverable materials by the late 2020s, driven by the temporal mismatch between rapid EV uptake and delayed battery retirement. However, even under optimistic assumptions, EU targets for recycled content in new batteries (for the years 2031/2036) are unlikely to be met under current assumptions and without additional policy intervention, particularly for cobalt. Scenarios with extended second-life use further delay material recovery, reducing near-term recycling outputs by up to 20%–25%. The findings highlight critical timing and capacity gaps in recycling infrastructure, providing actionable insights for industry and policymakers to support strategic planning and alignment with EU circular economy objectives.