Battery Material Demand and End-of-Life Management for Europe’s E-Mobility Transition

Potential resource constraints for batteries hinders the electric vehicle (EV) deployment which is necessary for meeting Europe’s climate goal. Most previous studies on the material implications of car electrification do not explicitly consider lifetime differences between EVs and batteries, particularly the dynamics of battery technology development and recycling pathways. Herein, we developed a product–component dynamic material flow analysis model for 32 European countries, including the European Union of 28 Member States (EU28), Norway, Iceland, Switzerland, and Turkey, and explored their supply–demand gaps for lithium (Li), cobalt (Co), Manganese (Mn), and nickel (Ni) under various scenarios. We found that achieving 100% electrification in Europe under the “combined mitigation strategies” scenario (i.e., advanced lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery technology, extended battery lifetimes, and shifts toward a smaller car segment) requires a high cumulative demand (2021–2050) for primary Li (2815 kt), Co (398 kt), Mn (397 kt), and Ni (2667 kt). Among various mitigation strategies, deploying advanced LFP battery technology appears to be the most critical for relieving resource pressure. We also reveal a trade-off effect for the second-life use of EV batteries: It may worsen critical material circularity but mitigate the carbon impact for prospective energy storage systems. Our product–component model can be used for other product systems and suggests the need for a systematic framework to maximize the synergies among material, energy, and climate strategies in the e-mobility transition.