The Impact of Technological Progress and Industrial Structure Upgrading on Agricultural Economic Resilience: An Empirical Study in China

Technological advancements are a key engine for improving productivity and are fundamental to enhancing the resilience of the agricultural economy by influencing production methods and driving structural transformation. The objective of this study is to analyze the impact of technological progress on agricultural economic resilience in China, with particular attention to (i) its direct effects on resistance, recovery, and reconstruction; (ii) its indirect effects through the upgrading of the agricultural industrial structure; and (iii) its potential nonlinear effects under different structural thresholds. To achieve this, a multidimensional evaluation framework has been developed to assess agricultural economic resilience through three distinct dimensions: resistance, recovery, and reconstruction. Using fixed effects, mediation, threshold and spatial Durbin models, we empirically analyze the impact pathways. The results suggest that technological progress significantly increases agricultural resilience, with robustness confirmed by various tests including model substitution and variable replacement. Furthermore, regional heterogeneity is evident, with the central region showing the strongest positive effect. The mediation analysis shows that modernization of industrial structure serves as an important transmission channel, while the threshold regression identifies nonlinear effects, with significant improvements occurring beyond certain structural thresholds. The results underline the importance of promoting technological innovation in agriculture, developing region-specific support measures and accelerating structural optimization to strengthen the resilience of agriculture.