How Does Global Economic Volatility Shape Agricultural Resilience? Institutional, Structural, and Technological Evidence from China's Provincial Panel Data (2000–2022)

The study draws on provincial panel data from 31 administrative units in China spanning 2000 to 2022. In light of these significant methodological considerations, an Agricultural Economic Resilience Index (AERI) indicates that the multifaceted nature of resilience requires construction across three dimensions — resistance, recovery, and adaptability. Study shows three analytical approaches applied. However, the analysis demonstrates that three key lines of inquiry appear relevant: identifying shock transmission mechanisms from the global economy, conducting cross-national comparisons with major agricultural producers, and decomposing the underlying economic logic of resilience formation. Given that the significant findings reveal important patterns, the results shows that China's agricultural economy demonstrated considerable resilience across three representative global shock episodes. Additionally, the evidence indicates that the mean composite AERI reached 0.681, and the average supply-chain recovery period was 1.8 years. Results show outcomes compare favorably to Brazil and India. Nevertheless, the significant findings shows that institutional, structural, and technological factors contributed elasticity coefficients of 0.312, 0.231, and 0.186, respectively. Furthermore, the evidence demonstrates that institutional factors appear to account for the largest share among these contributors. Thus, the key results indicates that two structural weaknesses stand out: a persistent decline in soybean self-sufficiency and pronounced regional imbalances in digital agriculture adoption. Notwithstanding these important structural concerns, the significant findings shows that China's agricultural resilience could follow a compound generative logic characterized by institutional primacy, structural support, and technology-enabled adaptation. Data shows study offers empirical reference for policy design. However, the evidence demonstrates that this study may provide a substantive empirical reference for resilience-oriented agricultural policy design in emerging economies.