Analysis of Japan's Foreign Policy Toward Russia During the Russo-Ukrainian Conflict

Since the 2014 Russo-Ukrainian crisis, Japan-Russia relations have reached a stalemate. Based on the intensity of the conflict, they can be divided into two phases: crisis and war. The first phase, during the Russo-Ukrainian crisis, was characterized by Japan's condemnation of Russia, economic sanctions and aid, and summit declarations. The second phase, during the Russo-Ukrainian war, was characterized by weakening Russia's political influence, strengthening the Japan-US alliance, aligning itself with NATO, intensifying military preparations, and supporting Ukraine to counter Russia. Using the Waltz hierarchy analysis method, this paper explores the drivers of Japan's foreign policy toward Russia. Internationally, these drivers include changes in the Russo-Ukrainian war situation, deteriorating US-Russia relations, and strengthening Sino-Russian relations. Domestically, these drivers include Japan's nationalism driven by the need to reclaim the Northern Territories, its desire for energy cooperation with Russia, Russia's obstruction of Japan's pursuit of great power status, Japan's military security, and the leadership style and public attitudes. Finally, a perspective on the future of Japan-Russia relations is presented, taking into account both domestic and international factors.