An Empirical Analysis of the Effectiveness of Local Industrial Policies for China’s New Energy Vehicle Sector

Despite China’s success in its new energy vehicle (NEV) transition, significant regional imbalances persist, raising the question of why provincial policy effectiveness is so context-dependent. To investigate this, this study develops a novel framework to measure policy “quality” and “style”, systematically quantifying 2455 provincial policy documents from 2013 to 2023. Our empirical analysis reveals that policy quality—encompassing its authoritativeness, instrument strength, and resource commitment—is a far more decisive determinant of effectiveness than sheer policy quantity. We identify three primary policy styles with distinct impacts: substantive-driving policies are crucial for stimulating market demand, whereas coordinative-programmatic policies are more effective in guiding industrial supply, revealing a significant goal-mismatch. Conversely, high-level authoritative policies can unexpectedly inhibit infrastructure development. Crucially, the study finds that provincial policies act more as “catalysts” than “creators”, their effectiveness being highly contingent on local economic, fiscal, and industrial fundamentals. The findings of this research offer direct implications for policymaking: decision-makers should shift their focus from pursuing policy quantity to enhancing policy quality and design targeted, “precision-irrigation” policy instrument portfolios tailored to the specific contexts and development objectives (e.g., promoting sales or guiding production) of different regions.