Modernizing carbon dioxide emissions inventories for action in the United States

Abstract We present 2010–2024 annual model output of a new carbon dioxide emissions model, with a raw resolution at points, lines, and polygons corresponding to emission sources, and a gridded resolution of 1 km² spatial resolution. The underlying model modernizes emissions modeling by incorporating web-scraping and data-fusion methods to update input emissions values as they are ingested, allowing for reliable and consistent updates of the emissions model. From the output, direct CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion for the entire US show that emissions were 5,267 MMTCO₂ in 2024. The largest activity sectors contributing to the national emissions was emissions from electricity production (1,667 MMTCO₂, 31.6% of national total) and the onroad sector (1,566 MMTCO₂, 29.7% of national total). By integrating energy forecasts, this model also highlights the potential for enhanced decarbonization policy applications given macroeconomic trends. Further comparison against existing federal datasets such as those of the Environmental Protection Agency’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and State Inventory Tool, and independent datasets such as Vulcan, Open-Data Inventory for Anthropogenic Carbon dioxide (ODIAC), and CarbonTracker, demonstrate robust agreement, though variation exists in spatial patterns and the presented dataset comprises relatively higher CO₂ emissions estimates. The flexibility and scalability of the model make it a valuable tool for monitoring CO₂ emissions trends and informing mitigation strategies.