College Canceled: What Happened to California’s High School Graduating Class of 2020?

Using individual-level administrative data from California linked to survey data, this study explores how and why recent high school graduates’ college trajectories may have been altered by the pandemic. We find sizable negative effects on college enrollment for the California high school graduating class of 2020. Similar to national trends, we find these enrollment declines were largest in the community college sector and for underrepresented minority students, low-income students, and students from high schools with low college-sending rates. At the same time, enrollment in the highly selective University of California system increased. These enrollment gains were concentrated among Asian and White students and those who attended high schools that historically send a large share of their graduates to college. Thus, the pandemic appears to have worsened inequalities not only in overall college enrollment but also in access to more elite institutions.