Analysis of the Risk Factors for PCCP Damage via Cloud Theory

Research on prestressed concrete cylinder pipes (PCCPs) has focused primarily on their failure mechanisms, monitoring methods, and the effectiveness of repairs. However, gaps in the study of damage risks associated with PCCPs remain. Based on existing relevant research, this study focused on analysing the uncertainties in the material production and manufacturing processes of PCCPs to assess their damage risk. The research employs onsite test data about the compressive strength of C55 concrete and the real prestressing force exerted on prestressed steel wires, utilising the measured compressive strength of the concrete core in PCCPs alongside the actual prestressing force applied to the steel wires. An inverse cloud generator was employed to obtain the expected value Ex, entropy En, and hyperentropy He of the characteristic numbers. These values are then combined with the forward cloud model in cloud theory to train random parameters. By combining cloud theory with the Monte Carlo method, a risk analysis model for PCCP pipelines was established. Using internal water pressure monitoring data from the Qiliqiao Reservoir to the Xiayi Water Supply Line in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, along with relevant PCCP pipeline data, the failure probability of the PCCP pipeline was calculated. The reliability index of this pipeline section under 0.6 MPa loading was found to be 4.49, demonstrating the reliability of the PCCP pipeline in this section of the water supply line.